History and prediction

Before going to university i bagan to think about mathematical modelling of history and large societies like civilizations. I was urged to read Poverty of historicism. Many years later after uni i had the time to read it and to think about it. i have not cristallised it in my mind enough to comment on it thoroughly, it did make me think about it much more.

Non linear mathematics describes phases spaces which is inhabited by random events that are linked to other values, some ideas were useful for the project.
The project has never actually got a serious effort from me. Sometimes i keep it in mind though.

Popper in POH describes the fundamental correlation of knowledge in historical development of societies and that it is impossible to predict what kind of knowledge about the phenomena of the world will be invented to describe it.

Some ideas that were connected to this:
* Bayes formula - the age an population size of the syste are related to the life expectancy of the system.
* News events that reflect situations which regularly lead given events of larger scale. (eg. Increase in discontents and riots leading to civil war)
* Small changes that lead to change in the pattern of the system
* Massive interconnected games
* Moore's law - computing technology does have some inherent rule that shows the growth of speed , size and cost
The aim of my project would not have been predetermination. However i dd think initially that there might be something like that. Telling what would happen in 1800s from the situaion in 1200.

Popper treats some ideas that have become more current now han thy were 60 years ago, but I remember vaguely about some loopholes which would give a chance at mathematical predetermination, that might grow bigger.